Back Cavaliers covering as road underdogs vs Celtics in Game 1

The spread between the Cavaliers and Celtics ahead of Game 1 is 11.5 or 12 points on NBA betting sites. On one hand, I’m not surprised the spread is this large. But on the other, this is an amount I absolutely see Cleveland covering. I’m taking them covering +11.5 points on BetMGM (-105).

In three regular season matchups, the Celtics won twice at home by seven and nine points, while Cleveland won once at home by one. In the 2022 season, Cleveland won three of four meetings with their one loss being four points.

I’m always intrigued to see a matchup between a team whose had time to rest (The Celtics haven’t played since May 1), and a team who kept playing (The Cavaliers won Game 7 of round one on May 5). I think Cleveland will benefit while Boston could start slow.

This isn’t the full strength Celtics either. Kristaps Porzingis’ injury leaves Al Horford as the only big Boston will trust to play big minutes. Granted, the Cavaliers can be considered to be in the same boat with Jarrett Allen questionable as of time of publish.

Donovan Mitchell will hold the keys to Cleveland’s entire operation. He dropped 50 and 39 points in the last two games against the Magic. The offense ran through him while Darius Garland had a rough series, but Garland will need to step up in his own right this series.

The Celtics know what they have to do, which is what they did all season and in round one. They’ll rely on elite three point shooting and suffocating defense. Derrick White was arguably their best player in round one, and I expect Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to step up.

By all accounts, this is a game and series the Celtics should win. But we saw the Celtics struggle in Game 2 at home against the Heat, and they’re weirdly enough a better road playoff team than at home the last few seasons.

If the Cavaliers come out with Mitchell being as dynamic as he was in round one, the Celtics will be in for a fight. Evan Mobley should be able to feast inside against a smaller Celtics lineup, making rebounding a key area in this game.

The Celtics are deep enough that if Brown or Tatum have a down game, the team can survive. The Cavaliers don’t quite have that luxury, but I think Mitchell and Garland will both play well. Garland was outstanding against the Celtics this season.

I also just don’t trust any team to blowout their opponent in Game 1 of a playoff series past the first round. Until I see how locked in Boston is, I feel good about Cleveland covering.

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